Signing With Blood: Will Russians Support The War In Ukraine Through Voting In The Elections?

The presidential elections are scheduled in Russia on March 17, 2024. The Russian government aims to ensure a voter turnout of at least 70% and a vote share of no less than 75% for the “main candidate.” During the war with Ukraine and strict media censorship, the election organizers expect the unity of Russians “around the flag” and support for the authority’s candidate.

President Putin has not officially announced his running for elections yet. However, he was granted the opportunity through Constitutional changes in 2020 when Putin’s presidential terms were “reset.” If elected in 2024, it will legally be considered his first presidential term rather than his third consecutive one, as it stands in reality. If Putin puts forward his candidacy, he will likely win the elections.

Firstly, in times of war, the commander-in-chief is not changed.

Secondly, Russians are intimidated by Russian propaganda and persecution for dissent.

Thirdly, the Russian government will implement remote electronic voting (REV) to correct problematic polling stations.

And fourthly, Russians do not believe in the justice of elections and that their vote matters, so they will vote as instructed by their officials rather than by their conscience.

However, elections in the context of war are new to Russia. Therefore, the main ways of engaging with voters will be tested in the 2023 elections. On September 10th, direct elections for governors will occur in 21 regions of Russia, including the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine, and elections for deputies in legislative assemblies in 16 regions.

The ruling party, United Russia, is already more confident than in previous elections. This is evidenced by the absence of self-nominated candidates in the 2023 governors’ elections. In previous elections in regions with low ratings for United Russia, candidates preferred to conceal their affiliation with the ruling party and run as independent candidates. In 2023, all incumbent governors will be nominated by United Russia.

Sociological surveys support the confidence of the ruling party. A poll conducted by Russian Field in May 2023 showed that 30% of Russians are willing to vote for candidates from United Russia. The same percentage of respondents is ready to vote for Vladimir Putin. The president is liked by 71% of those.

However, there is a high level of absenteeism among Russians. The age group of 34-59 years old is the most indifferent towards elections. Sixty-two percent believe that elections in their region are conducted unfairly. Forty-four percent do not know when the presidential elections in Russia will be held, demonstrating indifference.

However, the elections in 2023, especially in 2024, are particularly important to the Russian political elite. These elections must demonstrate that support for Putin has not diminished due to the war in Ukraine and that Russians support the war.

“Our multinational people have supported the special operation. True patriotism was manifested in this support,” said Putin in his Address to the Federal Assembly in February 2023. The elections must confirm the president’s words.

The upcoming elections are also significant for Russians. If they vote for candidates from the ruling party now, if they allow for falsifications at the elections, and if they vote for Putin in 2024, it means they share full responsibility for the war crimes committed by the Russian government in Ukraine.